Online gambling site Polymarket has raised over 1.7 billion yen in bets on when the US will invade Venezuela, but has been criticized for its vagueness in the criteria for winning and losing.



Polymarket is a gambling platform where people can bet on everything from who will be president to who will win the Nobel Prize to who will win a game. Polymarket also offers bets on when the U.S. will invade Venezuela. However, at the time of writing, the company has determined that the Venezuelan invasion has not yet occurred, leading to criticism of the ambiguity of its judgment criteria.

Will the US invade Venezuela by...? Predictions & Odds | Polymarket
https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025

Polymarket offers betting on a wide variety of topics, regardless of genre. When you visit Polymarket, you'll see bets on topics like 'Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?', 'Which team will win the 2026 Super Bowl?', and 'When will the new episode of Stranger Things be released?' on the homepage.



The controversial bet this time is, 'When will the US invade Venezuela?' This bet is conducted in the form of answering either 'Yes' or 'No' to four options: 'Invasion by December 31, 2025,' 'Invasion by January 31, 2026,' 'Invasion by March 31, 2026,' and 'Invasion by December 31, 2026.' At the time of writing, a total of $11,102,705 (approximately 1.7 billion yen) has been bet.



The bet rules section states, 'This bet will be scored 'Yes' if a military attack aimed at establishing control over a portion of Venezuela is initiated. Otherwise, it will be scored 'No'.' Additionally, on January 4, 2026, the day after

the U.S. military conducted an operation to capture President Nicolás Maduro, additional information was added: 'This bet covers a U.S. military operation aimed at establishing control. President Trump has stated that he will 'govern' Venezuela' in reference to discussions with the Venezuelan government, but this statement alone does not qualify the operation to capture President Maduro as a military invasion.'



Following the US military's operation and Polymarket's additional information, betting comments have been flooded with criticism that the ambiguity surrounding what constitutes a military invasion is unclear.



Incidentally, Polymarket was home to several bets on Venezuela, and immediately after the US military launched its operations, a new account that placed bets on topics such as 'By when will the US military be deployed to Venezuela?' and 'When will President Maduro step down?' made a profit of over 60 million yen, which became a hot topic.

An account made more than 60 million yen in profits on Polymarket just before Venezuela's President Maduro was arrested - GIGAZINE



Polymarket is also attracting attention as a platform that reflects public opinion , and on January 8, 2026, it announced partnerships with The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones to publish forecast data.




Additionally, Kalshi, a similar betting platform to Polymarket, has banned government officials from betting in an effort to curb insider trading.

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in Web Service, Posted by log1o_hf